The chairman of the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) envisions a single-network future in which space-based communications will be integrated with terrestrial networks to ensure connectivity everywhere.
Jessica Rosenworcel spoke late last week as part of a discussion at the Princeton University Center for Information Technology Policy, New Jersey.
Predicting the future is a dangerous business, she joked, and even smart people can be wrong – really, really wrong. As an example, she cited McKinsey & Company’s 1980s prediction that there would be only about 900,000 mobile phones worldwide by the turn of the millennium, and she highlighted the claim of former Intel CEO Andrew Grove, who said “the idea of a wireless personal device communicator in every pocket is a dream.”
Satellites may be in our skies, but they are the anchor tenant in our communications future…
Rosenworcel’s predictions aren’t quite outlandish enough to embarrass her or the FCC, and the first isn’t even a prediction but more of a principle: that communications should be available to everyone.
“In the past, you saw this principle in our work to bring telephone services to every corner of the country. Today, you see it in initiatives to close the digital divide, because we now know that access to broadband is essential – no matter who you are or where you live,” she said.
The U.S. has rolled out programs to bring broadband support to places where infrastructure is lacking, such as rural areas, Rosenworcel said. However, one such program, the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), was terminated just a few months ago due to a funding shortfall, much to the chagrin of the FCC.
“Concentrating access to digital networks, skills and production in a single population or select geographic region is not feasible,” says Rosenworcel. “These are essential inputs in modern social and economic life. We need them to reach everyone. This is about more than equality; it is about our economic and national security.”
The second point the FCC chairman makes is unlikely to surprise anyone who has been following the progress of Starlink and other organizations in deploying satellite-based broadband and telephone connectivity.
“In the not-too-distant future, we will integrate space-based communications into our terrestrial networks, including into the cell phone you now carry in your palm or pocket,” Rosenworcel said.
“This will make it possible for each of us to have a backup connection in the air when ground systems are unavailable or fail in a disaster. If we do this, we can put an end to mobile dead zones,” she added. the FCC is the first regulator to adopt a framework for combining these services into what it calls Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS).
But she went further, saying that for a common networking future, all network infrastructure – fiber, mobile, next-generation unlicensed wireless technology and satellite broadband – must work together seamlessly.
“To be clear, this vision doesn’t work without satellites. The way I see it, satellites may be in our skies, but they are the anchor tenant in our communications future,” Rosenworcel said.
This will require maintenance, assembly and manufacturing capabilities in space, and means that policies will need to be adapted over the next decade to support services and protect against drawbacks such as orbital debris.
The FCC Chairman’s next prediction inevitably involved AI. But instead of touting its potential, Rosenworcel warned of the risks, including vote cloning and digital human spoofing, as has already happened with President Biden.
This will only worsen as AI becomes more sophisticated, she predicted, saying that rather than restricting speech or technology, the FCC is trying to create the norm, both legally and socially, that ordinary citizens deserve to know when AI is being used.
“For an effective democracy, we must commit to making public what is synthetic and what is not. We must put transparency first.”
In more familiar territory, the fourth prediction is that the wireless industry will need “new spectrum and new models” to thrive.
“The challenge we face over the next decade is that we will see an extraordinary increase in wireless traffic, but our airwaves are a finite resource. So what can we do to turn this spectrum scarcity into abundance?” Rosenworcel asked.
New technology will provide part of the answer, she said, citing developments such as cognitive radios, which can intelligently use radio channels to avoid interference and congestion, and MIMO transmitters and receivers.
Another part is identifying and repurposing underutilized spectrum, often from other federal authorities, and marketing it for flexible, licensed commercial use, she said. Again, this is something that is already happening and not a prediction for the future.
Finally, there will be a need for policies that can improve digital trust, Rosenworcel said.
“If you buy a television, thermostat, security camera or fitness tracker right now, chances are it’s connected to the internet,” she said, adding that these will proliferate in the next decade, potentially surpassing a world record . trillion connected devices, and these devices must be secure.
The FCC’s answer is the Cyber Trust Mark.
“This is the first-ever voluntary cybersecurity labeling program supported by the United States. When this mark appears, it means the device has been certified to meet cybersecurity standards.”
It is intended that this will follow the cybersecurity criteria developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Rosenworcel said the Commission is also building on an existing model at the FCC for authorization of radio frequency devices. “So we have both a framework for standards and a framework for implementation.”
Rosenworcel ended by quoting management consultant Peter Drucker, who said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” Based on her predictions, it appears the FCC has taken them to heart. ®
