Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to narrowly win the 2024 presidential election, according to a new artificial intelligence (AI) analysis, with 276 Electoral College votes to 262 for Republican rival Donald Trump.
British gambling company Bonus Code Bets asked ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI, to assess which candidate would win each state based on publicly available polling information, demographic data and historical election results. It concluded that Harris would win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, but lose in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Recent polls show the 2024 presidential election remains too close, with a model from election aggregator FiveThirtyEight giving Harris a 1.4-point lead with 48.1 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 46.7 percent.
However, the Electoral College system allows a candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning overall, compared to 48 percent for Harris.
For its analysis, Bonus Code Bets told ChatGPT to “predict how each state will vote in the 2024 presidential election, using all available information, including polling information, demographic data, and by looking at past results and relevant events in the state during the current campaign. .”
The fourteen-vote Electoral College lead it gave Harris would be the third-largest in American history, behind Rutherford B. Hayes’ one-vote victory in 1876 and George W. Bush’s defeat of Al Gore in 2000 with five votes. However, if Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, with 19 and 15 Electoral College votes respectively, that would be enough to give him victory, according to the model.
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Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump presidential campaign representatives via email outside regular business hours on Wednesday for comment.
Speak with NewsweekA spokesperson for Bonus Code Bets said: “For years, polls have been used to indicate the outcome of elections, but new technology offers new ways to predict results.
“And having such a powerful AI tool that looks at the entire campaign and still predicts that Kamala Harris will win by a single state shows just how close this election will be.”
In its analysis, Bonus Code Bets emphasized the importance of major cities to the wins it predicts for Harris in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Referring to ChatGPT, the company said: “While Trump is likely to hold rural areas, which are Republican strongholds, it backs Harris to rely on key Democratic strongholds in cities like Detroit and Ann Arbor to maintain his blue shift.
“Similarly, Pennsylvania is tipped to vote marginally for Kamala, despite Donald’s strong support in the Rust Belt region – depending on votes from the major cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.”
Photo illustration by Newsweek/Getty
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden sparked controversy after he appeared to describe Trump supporters as “trash” in a Zoom call. However, speak NewsweekWhite House spokesman Andrew Bates insisted he had specifically referenced the “hateful rhetoric emanating from the rally at Madison Square Garden.”
It came after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe sparked controversy on Sunday by describing Puerto Rico as a “floating island of trash” as he addressed Trump at the former president’s rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden.
Despite the controversy, the odds of Trump winning on November 5 have improved in the past 24 hours, according to a number of leading bookmakers. On Tuesday, both Bet365 and Paddy Power were offering odds of 1-2 (66.7 percent) on a Trump win, but this had been cut to 10-21 (67.7 percent) and 4-9 (69) respectively by 4 a.m. ET .2 percent). Wednesday.
